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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd