Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
