Is the Entertainment Fading? This Decline of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves have scored a decrease of 10 scores from open-play situations than this point the previous campaign.

A key narrative of England's top flight season so far concerns the decline of scoring in open-play scenarios and how clubs are netting increasingly from set-plays as an alternative.

Comparing scoring methods to matchday 11 the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer in total.

Examining overall statistics, shot attempts teams are taking reveal a remarkable drop of 370 in open-play than at this stage last season.

And despite the significant rise in set-piece goals, there have actually been a mere two extra shots generated from them outside of penalties, demonstrating the efficiency sides have been at devising strategies to score from set-pieces.

Goal Averages Reveal the Tale

301 total goals notched in 110 games so far averages out at 2.74 goals per fixture, which if it continued for all 38 games might be the lowest for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).

Yet merely 196 scores scored in open play averages out 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the lowest for 16 years, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).

2009-10 also marks the only Premier League season to experience scoring more often from non-penalty set-pieces than the current rate of 0.77 each match (0.79 per game).

What Clubs Are Most Responsible?

When it comes to goals scored from open-play, Wolves have recorded by far the biggest drop, netting just four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than this point last season.

Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's decline in goals from open play is predominantly a trend among London clubs, with five of the city's seven teams netting five or more goals fewer from open play than the previous year.

In fairness, that's largely down to them netting lots of scores at the start of last season rather than them really struggling to convert in open-play the current term.

Meanwhile City have seen the biggest increase, with almost every one of their 23 scores to date coming in open-play.

Set-Piece Success

Comparing the promoted teams with those that were relegated they took the place of. Sunderland the Black Cats have netted three more goals in open-play than the Saints did in their opening 11 matches en route to relegation last season.

Regarding scoring from dead-ball situations (excluding penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have experienced the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the five fewer goals that they've scored in open-play with the same number from set-pieces.

United have scored twice as many goals from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games the previous campaign prior to their coach assumed control, while the Black Cats again have been more effective at netting than the club they replaced that went down.

City appear not to have received the trend about scoring more from set-plays, as they've recorded three less than last season, like Forest, though this could be because of the tactical shift they have tried to implement.

General Tendencies

Six teams – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – represent the current campaign's leading trend-followers by recording fewer scores from open play and increased from set-plays, while Manchester City are the unique club to buck the trend so far by achieving the exact opposite.

It remains to be seen to observe if clubs continue to place such emphasis on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and start converting additional scores in open-play also.

Jeremy Ruiz
Jeremy Ruiz

Maya is a seasoned digital strategist with over a decade of experience in crafting effective online campaigns and web solutions.